After pondering the events since August 7th, I strongly suspect Uncle Sam will be sending welcome letters to lots of young folks later this year or next. The catalyst is the Russian-Georgian conflict.
I'll venture a guess that the way we'll deal with the Ruskies won't change significantly because this will draw us into a nuclear war with them where the outcome is iffy.
Author James Kunstler made this observation on Aug 11th:
The war currently underway in former Soviet Georgia will at least end up with Russia in control of the major oil pipeline that runs from the Caspian region across Georgia, through Turkey, to Europe -- even while parts of that pipeline get blown up.
The net effect will be of Russia will taking control of even more of the oil now flowing to Europe. The whole point of building that pipeline was to bypass Russia, which was crippled by its own paradigm shift in the years when the pipeline was built.
The US might talk tough about this threat to the status quo, but what is it going to do? Pull troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan to mount a land war against Russia in a landlocked region of its own neighborhood? Fuggeddabowdit.
Notice, the Europeans are not making so much as a peep -- because when the time comes that Russia does control that pipeline, the Europeans will do anything to keep the contents flowing toward them. Europe may be organized as a trade-and-currency confederation, but not as a military power.
...The result of all this will be that Russia, already the world's leading oil producer, even as it has entered [oil] depletion, will now possess a potent geopolitical and financial weapon with control of that pipeline. A collateral effect will be Europe's inclination to bid more desperately for Middle East oil...
Well, let's hope Jim is right. He nearly always is on his peak oil issues. As I listened to Bush speak this past week, he condemns the Russians, but was initially all bark and no bite - but he is sneaky.
Unlike McCain, he didn't threaten to get Russia kicked out of the G8. He offered humanitarian aid to Georgians. Not backup, not military intervention, just crap the Red Cross gives us in an emergency.
The Georgians must be pissed especially their President, Mikheil Saakashvili. He placed so much trust in the US and gave up so much for so little: some weapons and empty promises of NATO membership if they allowed us to stick our missiles on their turf that - are pointed to Russia - and no agreement that we would fight the Russians if those two countries got into it.
Here's where the sneaky part comes in. Around 8/14, Bush & Co. did something to further destabilize the situation over there. He pushed through a long-stalled deal with Poland for us to set up our missiles in their country, which will be pointing at Russia. Poland is a member of NATO, so if Russia attacks them, other countries are obligated to get involved. The Polish government was stupid for accepting this deal: it's the same one we gave Georgia.
Also possibly related to these stories last week, there was a story about an unprecedented number of naval warships headed toward Iran. I haven't read it in many any other places so can't verify the truth of it, but there are a number of stories that Kuwait is on it's highest military alert possible.
I was disturbed enough about this to mention both because of the BushCo's desire to place a military blockade around Iran - which they consider an act of war. If you recall, the powerful Israeli lobby, AIPAC, tried to push that agenda through with Congress via Resolution 362, but so far Congress has balked at signing off on it, saying that the blockade clause needs to be removed since Iran considers this an act of war.
Bush, as usual, went ahead in mid-late July and gave the Iranians a two week deadline to comply to his agenda, to which the Iranians have pretty much given the finger to.
Either our boyz in the Pentagon and White House badly miscalculated Russia's reaction when they:
1) suckered Georgia into supporting us in our 2003 Iraq invasion with membership to NATO as the carrot on the stick which never materialized,
2) began arming and training Georgia with the help of the Israelis, yet having no formal agreement in protecting them against outside military aggression if they were attacked (which begs the question: why arm them with a military if you know they can't win against the Russian bear?), and
3) got the Georgians to agree to us placing our missiles on their land in the near future - which is right across Russia's border (then we got uppity when Russian discussed the merits of having their missiles on Cuba),
or did our leaders use Georgia as the bait to get the bigger fish, ie, all part of a grander, devious plan to distract us from their ambitions to destabilize the region with the purpose of frying Iran. Think back to June when Israel's Prime Minister said, "If Iran continues with it's nuclear programme, we will attack it."
They're worried to death that Iran will have the capability of making nukes like they have - and they should be because neither use diplomacy with one another and have a mutual hatred - but I think they're more worried that this will ensure that neither Israel nor Iran could attack one another without both losing everything. The US, Russia, and China have been in the position for decades, and it's called Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). No one fucks with a country for it's resources or to colonize it when they have the bomb.
If I were the Georgian president, I'd be wondering if I had been an expendable knight in this treacherous and dangerous geopolitical chess game. Russia's Ambassador labeled him a war criminal last weekend.
Surely by now their President, a seemingly likable man but treated like a poodle by us for years and now dissed and blamed for the problem by the one senior fellow of the CFR, has figured out that "the trigger for such a war is not Georgia’s right to annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Rather, it is US insistence on pushing NATO and its missile defense right up to Russia’s door."
One thing is clear: Russia is back in the Super Power geopolitical game, and I'm guessing they've won Georgia as easily as we won Grenada... unless Bush or whoever takes his seat next year is ready for the last nuclear showdown, we ain't doing jack to the Russians.
This leaves Georgia, as well as Poland in a tough and stupid spot. On Friday, 8/15, top Russian general Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn said that "Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike — 100 percent."
The Iranians are in a worse but different situation. They ain't white by white American standards, or Christians, and thus expendable in the eyes of the people in charge who view them as sub-human and disposable. I have no question that Cowboy Bush & Co. will nuke Tehran, a city of 70 million men, women, and children, in a heartbeat if they think they can win, and sleep like babies at the end of the day.
This includes the pro-war Grandpa McCain, but y'all know this. Keep it in mind on Election Day, even if you've got a mile long laundry list of complaints about Obama.
Then there's an odd story of a naval assault ship, the USS Kearsarge, heading toward South America for humanitarian purposes to dole out free medical care. Does this sound like our military of recent years? The one that's already spending millions every single day and overstretched? What is that really about?
Betcha it'll be near Venezuela if SHTF and we see an opportunity to overthrow their government.
I'm dead certain that the Russian-Georgian conflict, plus our fiending for Iran & Venezuela's oil will be the excuses that the military draft will be re-instated after the elections, no matter who wins.
Yes, the draft.
One little known American Legion commander said last month, "People aren't going to like this, but unfortunately, we need to reinstate the draft and basically put fresh meat on the table."
Fresh meat. That includes you too, ladies.
Reinstatement of the draft was discussed a lot in 2004 before the last Election, but put on the back shelf. Notice how this year, no news reporter I've seen interview any of the candidates have touched it with a ten foot pole. Even Pastor Rick Warren, author of The Purpose Driven Life, missed that opportunity last night when he interviewed Obama and McCain separately.
They wouldn't reinstate the draft in 2004, as Bush would have never been re-elected, not that he truly was anyway if you believe the votes were stolen. It would have interfered with their endless war plans. Thus our military has been over-stretched by a 2004 policy called Stop-Loss. It's a back-door draft, and you can't leave when your tour of duty is up if they need you. We have exhausted soldiers who have served three tours so far.
As this article asked in February 2008, are we one unforseen crisis away from a military draft? The author had the foresight to write about Pakistan - a real nightmare in this recipe for disaster - and concluded that "the need for a draft may be the egg in America's basket scheduled for a surprise scrambling."
Bush made deals with the Canadians and, and unlike the Vietnam War, there will be no easy escape there to avoid a traditional draft. Now might be a great time to get medical documentation for the asthma you're sure you have, or that mental condition your friends accuse you of when they say, you so crazy!
Yeah, be crazy like a fox... and as I said, this includes you ladies to, because if you think you won't be drafted, think again and about the way things have going for the past seven years.
Blowback is a bitch and takes many forms. To greatly paraphrase this article:
We'd better hope that Russia doesn't seek revenge by selling all $50 billion of its Fannie Mae mortgage-backed bonds, all of its US dollar-backed assets, and accept only rubles and euros in the future sale of Russian oil and natural gas. If so, watch as the dollar crashes and the Dow Jones goes into a death-spiral.
Get ready for more lies about more upcoming wars and the media playing a major role in propaganda. All of the networks are amazingly painting the Russians as the aggressors toward Georgia by siding with White House's version of what happened there.
Our mainstream media has become like the leading newspaper for the Communist Party in the old Soviet Union from 1912 to 1991. It was called Pravda. This is the Russian word for truth. Their people and the world developed a saying: there's no truth in Pravda and no Pravda in truth.
This YouTube video below is of a Fox News interview last week with a 12 year old girl and her aunt illustrates this.
The girl was visiting relatives in Georgia when the war broke out. What she said was unexpected for the media. She described how the US-friendly side of Georgia attacked the South Ossetia, and she thanked the Russian troops for saving them. The Fox News interviewer rushed to end the interview after she said that.
Despite this girl's story and many others like it in international news papers and from eye witnesses, the American mainstream media has since switched to the White House version of Pravda.
In addition, a Russian cameraman says CNN used film footage of wrecked tanks and ruined buildings, which was purported to have been filmed in the town of Gori, but showed the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali. I've listened carefully to the CNN talking heads, and they are adhering to the White House version that Georgia was attacked.
An old piece of wisdom is that the first casualty of war is truth. How sad for us, and sadder still that this is only the beginning what's shaping up to be a very long and painful century in humanity's journey.
For the first time ever, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has admitted that his country started the military conflict in South Ossetia in August.
“We did start military action to take control of Tskhinvali and other unruly areas. But we took this difficult decision to fend off our territory from intervention and save the people who were dying. It was inevitable,” Saakavili said.
Defense Minister David Kezerashvili told the commission on Thursday [Nov 27, 2008] that Georgia attacked the rebel capital Tskhinvali on Aug 7-8 because Russian forces were pouring across the border and it was a matter of time before they began attacking Georgian-populated villages.
But at the time, there was no public statement from the Georgian leadership that Russian forces were invading. The shelling of Tskhinvali after a ceasefire of several hours and the subsequent ground assault was justified as a response to rebel shelling of Georgian villages.